Archive for January, 2008

What Are the Odds?

The modern casino offers a variety of different games such as blackjack tournaments. The following table lists the more popular ones and the corresponding house advantage. Keep in mind as you read the table that the Basic Strategy player is playing set of blackjack rules a little under even with the house, and the proficient card counter at about a 1.5 percent advantage.

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The reality of the situation

As auspicious as that sounds, there are still many bosses who don’t understand that counting is a long and difficult undertaking - and that the greatest counter in the world still loses four out of every ten times he sits down at a blackjack table. In a world where knowledge of percentages should ooze from the corners of every blackjack pit, this mistaken belief in how easy it is to win by counting cards continues to prevail for some reason. And that makes life for card counters a lot more difficult than it should be.
The reality of the situation is that playing in any casino as an advantage player is an art form all to itself. Whether owned by a large gaming corporation like MGM Mirage or a smaller independent like the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, the casinos are in business to make money just like any other business. And if you’re not adding to their bottom line like everyone else is, then you’re really not a welcomed customer.

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The Advantage Player Interface

Casinos come in all shapes and sizes: big ones, small ones, those plainer than plain, and those lavish beyond your wildest dreams. But remember casinos are businesses like any other, and whether big or small, the bottom line for any operating business is to make a profit.

From your experience to date, is it hard to imagine a pit full of friendly casino personnel suddenly turning against you? It probably is, and it’s probably also hard to imagine a multi-million dollar corporation “sweating” the action of a single card counter varying his bets between $10 and $200 per hand. But that happens too. Why? Because you, as an advantage player, are taking up space at a blackjack table otherwise worth “x” dollars per hour to the house. And losing money to one customer when a casino would otherwise stand to make money from another is the last thing any good company wants to do on a consistent basis. Which is what would happen if casino management allowed you to play.

So how bad does it get? That depends where you are and what rules are in effect for the particular jurisdiction you’re playing in. I’ve been both backed off and barred in my playing career and, believe me, it’s no fun. In Las Vegas, for instance, casinos can still prevent card counters from playing blackjack by throwing them off the premises, often referred to as being barred, or in casino lingo, being “86′d.” Whereas in Atlantic City, for example, regulations enforced by the Casino Control Commission prevent any casino from actually barring someone from the premises. But the flip side (and there’s always a flip side) is that the casinos in AC can suddenly impose procedures or rule changes that nullify the card counter’s advantage, thereby making it pointless for a skilled player to keep playing.
But you’re not doing anything wrong, you say? Tell me about it. It’s an ageold dispute that has existed since the days of Dr. Edward Thorp and company. You’re simply using your head, aren’t you? What right does the casino have to change the rules, or worse, prohibit you from playing?

Thankfully, most people aren’t advantage players. They show up at their favorite casino - eat, drink, laugh, cry, and in the process usually drop a few dollars at the tables. That keeps the casinos happy - at least most of the time. But you are soon to become “persona поп grata,” an expression commonly used to describe the absence of a welcome mat for modern - day card counters. Not because you’re a threat to wander in off the street and take any casino for $100,000 on one afternoon, but because you’re playing with an advantage every time you sit down at a blackjack table.

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